Follow along with my photo essay for a brief but clear explanation of Lake Michigan’s fluctuating water levels and the 2020 major high water-level event.

Lake Michigan Water Levels Fluctuation Cycles

• Lake Michigan water levels fluctuate on an annual cycle, rising in the spring and summer due primarily to snowmelt runoff. Water levels decline in the fall due to increased evaporation from the temperature difference between the colder air and warmer water.
• On average, the highest lake levels are observed between June and August.
• Variability of water levels in Lake Michigan is observed on many different time spans, including seasonal, monthly, annual and decades.

Major Weather Factors affecting Lake Michigan water levels?

• Hotter summer weather increases water evaporation from the lake resulting in decreased water levels. Conversely, less evaporation due to colder summer weather can result in increased water levels.
• Increase or decrease ice coverage over the lake during the winter effects water levels. Low ice coverage will experience more evaporation off the lake resulting in a decrease in water levels and visa versa.
• Increase or decrease of runoff from rivers, streams and channels can affect water levels accordingly.
• Increase or decrease of snow and rain accumulation affects water levels accordingly.
• Human sources can also affect fluctuations in water levels, but much less than precipitation, runoff, and evaporation.

Lake Michigan Record High Water Level Event of 2020

• Lake Michigan experienced low water levels from 2000 to 2013, but beginning in 2014, water levels began to show a significant rise. On a personal note; I worked at Oval Beach in Saugatuck, Michigan from 2010 to 2019 and witnessed firsthand water levels rise each year as our beach simultaneously shrank each of those years.
• By 2020, Lake Michigan water levels were near the highest observed monthly levels since at least 1918. The most recent period with similar lake levels was 1986-1987.
• For eight months of 2020, Lake Michigan’s record high water levels were over two feet above average. It caused eroded shorelines and damaged docks and harbors as waves reached higher and higher levels.
• Elevated lake levels increase impacts along the shorelines particularly during storm events; even minor weather events can cause flooding of low-lying areas near the lake such as rivers, beaches, streets, parks, and trails.

2020 photos of Lake Michigan damaged bluff in Southwest Michigan due to extreme high-water levels.

The above photos show some of the damage along a Southwest Michigan lake bluff during high water levels in 2020. Trees were leveled from erosion and powerful storm waves literally reached up and over the iron breaker walls and as the waves repeatedly washed back and forth, they lossened the heavy iron breakers off their foundations.

Many homeowner were affected by the high water levels. Some people brought in thousands of dollars worth of giant boulders along the shoreline to save their homes while other homes could not be saved and were moved to other locations.

What special conditions led to the 2020 record high water level event? 

1. Between 2014 and 2020, Lake Michigan and bordering states experienced the wettest consecutive six year events in history. This includes snow and rain.
2. The “water year” from November, 2018 to October, 2019 was declared the wettest water year on record across Michigan and Wisconsin. I especially remember that spring of 2019 because it rained almost everyday and I lost my best raspberry shrub to a fungus.
3. Two major winter Polar Vortex events happened the years of 2014 and 2019 which caused record high ice coverage over the lake resulting in less evaporation contributing to the high water levels!

Water Levels Today as of 2026

• As of early 2026, Lake Michigan water levels are trending down, continuing a decline from 2020 record highs due to lower-than-average precipitation and increased evaporation. The water level is roughly 49 inches below the 2020 record high.
• Levels in January 2026 are approximately 577.5 feet, placing them about 12 inches below the long-term average, yet still significantly above the record lows of 2013. 
• Projections indicate the water level will remain below the long-term average through at least May 2026, though not approaching the 2013 record low.
•  Note: Data is based on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projections and reports from early 2026.

All rights reserved © Fossillady 2026